VAERG | Commercial truth for capital decisions

Commercial truth for capital decisions.

VAERG delivers independent, IC-grade analysis of pricing, margins, and value risk. The work is designed for transactions and board-level decisions where assumptions carry material downside.

VAERG is used by private equity funds, serial acquirers, corporate M&A teams, and investment companies to test commercial cases before capital is committed.

What VAERG does.

VAERG provides a structured commercial decision layer across the investment lifecycle. Outputs are produced in fixed sections and built to withstand Investment Committee scrutiny. The analysis isolates what is defensible, what is conditional, and what is illusion, without drifting into execution planning or management advice.

1. Commercial screening. (24 hours turnaround)

Most cases enter deeper diligence without anyone first testing whether the case is commercially underwriteable at all. Commercial Screening separates structurally sound economics from narratives with hidden blockers. It is not full underwriting. It is an IC-gate.

Input is IM, teaser, or pitch material.

The output delivers a commercial verdict (proceed, conditional, or high risk) before resources are committed. It identifies the reality gap between narrative and substance, maps the structural risks most likely to kill the deal, and defines what can and cannot be underwritten without further data. Every screening includes a base case, a break case, and a verification agenda specifying what to confirm and what data to request before the case advances.

2. Commercial due diligence. (3–5 days)

CDD determines the credible value envelope and identifies where the investment case breaks. It replaces narrative assumptions with structured commercial logic, built for decisions made under incomplete data and seller-driven narratives.

Input is the Information Memorandum, management materials, and aggregated revenue splits.

The output delivers executive commercial framing focused on economic logic, with IC implications for valuation and bid structure. It assesses pricing power, margin quality, revenue durability, and elasticity risk. A scenario framework maps alternative outcomes with explicit breakpoints showing where the valuation becomes indefensible. The verification agenda identifies priority questions for management and data requirements to resolve before signing.

3. Commercial value audit. (5–10 days)

CVA replaces assumptions with empirical evidence by analysing observed transaction behaviour. The objective is to quantify evidence-based EBITDA potential and identify exactly where value and risk reside. Most value plans fail not on ambition but because the economics were never validated at transaction level.

Input is invoice-level transaction data, customer and product masters, pricing history, discount structures, and selected contract samples.

The output delivers a full EBITDA value bridge, pricing architecture reconstruction, customer- and product-level economics, harmonisation potential, indexation reality, elasticity risk, and a commercial risk map. The addressable value inventory provides a complete map of where value sits, without prioritisation.

Harmonisation as a value driver.

Harmonisation is treated as a commercial truth test, not a blanket initiative. The purpose is not to make all customers equal, but to make differences explicit, justified, and governable. Where structures are incoherent, margin becomes fragile and value creation becomes aspirational.

Commercial truth at transaction level.

VAERG analyses transaction-level behaviour to reveal how margin is created and where it quietly leaks. For investors, this makes pricing quality and downside risk visible before the deal is locked. For operators, it clarifies where value is structurally addressable and where it is blocked by contracts, behaviour, or execution reality.

One doctrine. Three analyses.

VAERG is delivered through three structured outputs. Commercial Screening is used to test whether a case warrants deeper commitment. Commercial Due Diligence is used before LOI when data is limited and narrative is strong. Commercial Value Audit is used once evidence becomes available and the economic truth must be confirmed. The same doctrine applies in every case. Defensible base case. Conditional upside. Clear breakpoints.

Why it matters.

Capital decisions rarely fail due to lack of data. They fail because weak assumptions are allowed to pass as truth. VAERG exists to prevent that. When pricing quality, margin structure, and revenue durability are understood early, valuation discipline improves and bad cases die faster.

From truth to action, selectively.

VAERG is not an implementation firm. In selected operating company engagements, execution support can be provided as a separate mandate when boards or owners require measured value capture. The analysis always remains the same. Independent. Evidentiary. Non-excusable.